Emissions in 2020 and 2030

"It is clear that the world will have to take some tough decisions if it is to give itself a reasonable chance of holding to 2 degrees centigrade. In 2030 the overall world budget for emissions would be in the region of 32 billion tonnes CO2e.

  On current, fairly explicit, plans (see Stern, 2011 and 2012a on China's 12th five year plan). China is likely to go from around 9 billion tonnes p.a. now to around 12 in 2020. Currently policy makers in China are speaking of a peak of emissions in 2030. A further increase of 3 billion tonnes in annual flows over the decade from 2020 would take China to around 15 billion tonnes in 2030 when the population may be around 1.4 billion (and thus per capita emissions 10 or 11 tonnes). If the USA's total were 6 or 7 billion tonnes and the EU totalled 3 or 4 then in 2030, China, USA and the EU might together total around 25 billion tonnes. With a 32 billion tonne budget, that would "leave" 7 billion tonnes for the other nearly 6 billion of the 8 billion in the world in 2030 (assuming the population of China/USA/EU totals a little above 2 billion people in 2030). That would require this 6 billion to average close to 1 tonne per capita 20 years from now – that would be extremely unlikely to be feasible.

 

"The implication is that China/USA/EU will have to be far lower than 25 billion tonnes CO2e in 2030 if a reasonable chance of 2 degrees centigrade is to
be realistic. One can see in these figures the potential intensity of the debate on who does what and where and how investment and technology are financed."

From: Ethics, equity and the economics of climate change. Nicholas Stern, August 2012. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. Working Paper No. 97, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 84. Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publications/WorkingPapers/Papers/80-89/WP84-ethics-equity-economics-of-climate-change.pdf. Last accessed: 4.9.2013.